Senior Forecast Analyst

Note: This recruitment will remain open until we fill the position. We reserve the right to make a hiring decision at any time, which is why it's in your best interest to submit materials as soon as possible. We will review the first batch of applications on Jan. 31, 2022, and will review additional applications each week until we fill the position. Special Note: This position is exempt from civil service rules. For more information, please see WAC 357-19-195. Overview The Senior Forecast Analyst supports state, county and sub-county estimate work that is required by Washington State statute, using expert level knowledge in software development, modeling, forecasting and professional leadership. You will develop and produce the age, sex, race and Hispanic origin estimates (Small Area Demographic Estimates) for Washington State geographies down to the census block, working closely with other Office of Financial Management (OFM) analysts and partner agencies during the process. The Forecasting Division conducts research on a variety of issues related to the state budget, public policy and demographics. Your job would be within our Population Unit, which develops official state and local population estimates and projections that the state can use for certain state revenues, growth management and other planning functions. As the official partner of the U. S. Census Bureau for Washington, the Population Unit helps disseminate information about the characteristics of Washington's population and housing. We also guide a variety of stakeholders to access and use demographic information. Who we are Our work at the Office of Financial Management serves as a crucial part of the decision-making that the governor, Legislature and state agencies do each year. As an employee of OFM, you will be part of a team of dedicated professionals who work every day to provide vital information, fiscal services, policy support and technology services to the governor, Legislature and state agencies. Working alongside policy experts and researchers in areas such as education, climate change, natural resources, social supports, and public health, you get to see how the governor, Legislature and state agencies use our work to serve the people of Washington. If being part of legislative and policy change matters to you, you've found the right agency. What we offer our employees We support the following values in the workplace: * Foster an environment of diversity, equity and inclusion. We strive to hire, cultivate and retain a competitive workforce that reflects the communities we serve. * Encourage a healthy life/work balance by offering flexible/alternative work schedules, wellness activities, mobile arrangements and telework opportunities. * Modernize our work environment by thinking outside the cubicle and providing workspaces that promote creative collaboration, drive efficiency, and best suit the important work we do. * Offer an Infants at Work Program to promote parent and infant bonding, parental well-being and healthy infant development. Depending on your job duties, work location and supervisor approval, eligible employees who are new mothers, fathers or legal guardians can bring their infant (six weeks to six months) when they return to work. What you'll be doing * Serve as lead developer for the Small Area Demographic Estimates (SADE) program. * Make precedent-setting decisions regarding all aspects of system design, coding and maintenance. Run the model and produce preliminary estimates for review and final estimates for publication. * Communicate with stakeholders and help collect input data, extract, transform and load data for system use. * Support the April 1 Estimates Program (RCW 43.62.020) by helping us estimate the population for approximately 60 cities, communicating with local officials, resolving issues and preparing information for publication. * Create internal use and publication ready tables, reports and infographics by directly querying our SQL database. * Support the Small Area Estimates Program (SAEP) by collecting and cleaning detailed housing start, address and parcel data from local governments and regional planning organizations. * Support the Population Unit's work with the Federal Census Bureau and prepare census data for use in OFM's data systems, models and publications. * Serve as an expert resource on SAS software. Mentor and advise others on how to use SAS and software. What we're looking for We're looking for an adaptable and analytical leader who is very data literate and capable of making complex, data driven, decisions. You will possess a combination of technical expertise and strategic problem-solving skills to accomplish your duties in a timely manner. Someone who is committed to promoting diversity, equity, and inclusivity practices.Required * Bachelor's degree in social science, statistics or a closely related field.* * Academic courses during at least two years of higher education in fields related to demography or an equivalent work history directly relating to population estimates and projections and the fundamental definitions, concepts, measures, and techniques supporting applied demography. * Two years' experience in an applied demographic position. Additional work experience may be considered a substitute for an advanced degree. * Detailed knowledge of demographic concepts, statistics, methods, and the proven ability to use them independently in an applied demographic environment to resolve complex and difficult issues. * Comprehensive knowledge of U.S. Bureau of the Census, and other population and population-related data sources. * Excellent document development, graphics, technical writing, and general writing skills. * Ability to present demographic concepts, procedures, and information to federal, state, local and tribal, government officials, academic partners and the public. * Ability to prepare a variety of population estimates, forecasts, and other demographic products. * Highly proficient programming skills. Senior level knowledge of one or more statistical and geospatial software programs such as: SAS, STATA, SPSS, R, Python, ArcGIS or QGIS, and the ability to use the software independently. * Journey level skills with Microsoft Word, Excel and PowerPoint. *Additional related professional experience may be used to substitute the education requirement on a year-for-year basis. Desired * Graduate degree in social science, statistics or a closely related field. * Five years of professional experience working in an applied demography position with experience preparing demographic estimates and forecasts. * Project management experience and an understanding of the Lean management system. * Expert level programming skills. Expert level knowledge of one or more statistical or geospatial software program such as: SAS, STATA, SPSS, R, Python, ArcGIS or QGIS, and the ability to use the software independently to devise methods and processes to resolve complex issues. * Senior level skills with Microsoft Word, Excel and PowerPoint. Condition of Employment: On August 9, 2021 Gov. Jay Inslee issued Proclamation 21-14, that requires all employees of executive cabinet agencies to be fully vaccinated with the COVID-19 vaccine, by Oct. 18, 2021, as a condition of your employment. Pursuant to this mandate, you will be required to provide proof of vaccination as a part of the hiring process. Your vaccination status will be verified at new employee onboarding. Exemptions may be granted for religious or medical purposes. How to apply Interested? We would love to hear from you. Click "Apply" at the top of this page to start your application (you can save the application and come back to it, if needed). Please include the following along with your application: * Letter of interest that describes your specific qualifications. * Current resume that details your applicable experience and education. * List of at least three professional references with current telephone numbers. We will directly contact the top candidates to interview for this position. Because we base our selection on the information you provide, it is in your best interest to identify the knowledge, skills and abilities that address the required and desirable qualifications we described above. Questions? For questions about this recruitment or to request reasonable accommodation in the application process, please email Janet at TalentAcquisition@ofm.wa.gov. For TTY service, please call the Washington Relay Service at 7-1-1 or 1-800-833-6388. The Office of Financial Management is an equal opportunity employer. We strive to create a working environment that includes and respects cultural, racial, ethnic, sexual orientation and gender identity diversity. Women, racial and ethnic minorities, persons of disability, persons over 40 years of age, and disabled and Vietnam-era veterans are encouraged to apply. If you need accommodations or help in the application process, or who wish to receive this job announcement in an alternative format, you may call 360-725-0158 or dial 711 to reach the Telecommunications Device for the Deaf system.

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